How Will Trump’s Tariffs Affect Greece?
As the U.S. ramps up its trade war with the European Union by imposing a 20% tariff on a broad range of EU goods, Greek exporters and consumers are bracing for the fallout. While the direct impact on Greece may be limited in the short term, sectors tied closely to exports—especially food and agriculture—face serious challenges.
Greek Exports in the Crosshairs
The hardest hit are expected to be iconic Greek products like olive oil, table olives, feta cheese, and wine. These goods, now more expensive on American shelves, will lose competitiveness in a key overseas market. Greek intermediaries are unlikely to absorb the increased costs, meaning price hikes will ripple through to U.S. consumers—and eventually Greek producers.
Food products account for roughly 31% of Greece’s exports to the U.S., with table olives alone generating over €200 million in annual revenue. Losing ground in the American market could be a major setback for Greek exporters.
Economic Ripple Effects
Though only 4.5% of Greece’s total exports go to the U.S., the broader impact comes from the potential drag on the Eurozone economy. Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis warned that the tariffs could shave 0.3% to 0.4% off Eurozone GDP in the first year, with Greece feeling the ripple effects of slower growth across Europe.
Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras echoed that sentiment, saying inflation could rise, and further interest rate cuts might be needed to stabilize the Eurozone economy.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis acknowledged the strain but remained measured: “This trade war benefits no one. It will hurt everyone. But the Greek economy, with planning and responsibility, can weather the storm.”
Exporters Raise the Alarm
Greek exporters are deeply concerned. Alkiviadis Kalampokis, President of the Panhellenic Exporters Association, noted that 30% of Greek exports to the U.S. are agricultural, with another 41% being industrial goods. He emphasized that products like Greek wine and olives have carved out a niche in the American imagination—“they evoke the dream of the American consumer.”
While the current euro-to-dollar exchange rate offers some relief, it’s not enough to offset the blow from tariffs. Kalampokis called for a coordinated EU response and urged the Greek government to stay engaged in negotiations.
Long-Term Effects on Greek Households
For now, Greek households may not feel much pain. Panagiotis Liargovas, President of the Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE), estimates the impact on GDP will be under 0.5%. However, industries heavily dependent on U.S. exports will likely see reduced revenues, which could eventually lead to job losses or price hikes at home.
"Some countries may even tip into recession," Liargovas warned, "depending on the depth and duration of the trade dispute."
A Wake-Up Call for Structural Reform
Several Greek business leaders argue that this is an opportunity to re-evaluate the country’s economic strategy. Ioannis Bratakos of the Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry said the tariffs underscore the need to strengthen Greece’s economic resilience and diversify its export markets.
Stavros Kafounis, head of the Hellenic Confederation of Commerce and Entrepreneurship, called for a unified government-business roadmap to guide the country through what could become a prolonged period of uncertainty.
